Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 44.086562 51.946288 60.538120 70.593269 82.002288 94.508860 109.218049
2024-12-22 29.446750 39.101060 50.691871 65.489047 83.720302 105.283130 132.534829
2024-12-29 23.749887 34.528833 48.405239 67.268069 91.890464 122.562272 163.228607
2025-01-05 19.049571 30.031083 45.063042 66.628121 96.176276 134.587964 187.526862
2025-01-12 17.096881 28.812287 45.669064 70.912859 106.838133 155.097937 223.592425
2025-01-19 13.418739 24.366201 41.009862 67.121309 105.813163 159.611609 238.329130
2025-01-26 11.946997 23.055770 40.710707 69.447346 113.390750 176.131549 270.085012
2025-02-02 11.216489 22.818517 41.971817 74.132001 124.618885 198.295870 310.737273
2025-02-09 10.099311 21.715457 41.664484 76.245556 131.996292 215.159912 344.496877
2025-02-16 8.987782 20.430231 40.867069 77.417698 137.881873 229.995833 375.849748
2025-02-23 7.863596 18.926164 39.488471 77.434033 141.830917 241.987461 403.380219
2025-03-02 6.676864 17.085011 37.265808 75.746689 142.799023 249.317441 424.044802
2025-03-09 5.775283 15.794802 36.122799 76.249296 148.123943 264.831947 459.805087
2025-03-16 4.407999 13.183162 32.086835 71.119515 143.551231 264.476938 471.191638
2025-03-23 3.923203 12.520222 31.851156 73.048872 151.395976 284.715118 516.207782
2025-03-30 3.301885 11.356875 30.373856 72.365197 154.420642 297.003532 548.839342
2025-04-06 3.141518 11.379215 31.485141 76.953545 167.426778 326.827835 611.541726
2025-04-13 2.456272 9.739389 28.563302 72.893627 163.825725 327.771572 626.085551
2025-04-20 2.241714 9.436009 28.736172 75.384609 172.933748 351.376422 679.851142
2025-04-27 2.172723 9.577735 30.016816 80.398627 187.290064 384.947965 751.938838
2025-05-04 1.977676 9.250882 30.065887 82.659598 196.279057 409.219873 808.819677
2025-05-11 1.762129 8.789534 29.694073 83.913192 203.283580 430.154480 860.620705
2025-05-18 1.527780 8.182939 28.834500 83.930661 207.714718 446.498191 904.887558